Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
